Kupp Half Full
Because one of the lasting memories of the Week 6 loss was the odd disconnect between Jared Goff and Kupp, I wanted to circle back on what they've done since that Sunday night in Santa Clara.
The Rams' slot receiver has been targeted 46 times for 33 receptions and 348 yards. That's a catch rate of 72 percent and an average of 87 yards per game – both comfortably above Kupp's career levels.
While they haven't linked up on a scoring play in the last six outings, that Niners defeat really was a blip on an otherwise sterling radar.
It was a confidence-building win in Week 11 for Goff, who was markedly improved from empty sets and against the Buccaneers blitz.
The interceptions were a nuisance, I understand. And no question he, Kevin O'Connell and Sean McVay are working hard to minimize those miscues even further. After only four picks through seven games, Goff has thrown four in the Rams last three outings.
I just want to point out that interception percentage – and really, turnover-worthy plays – are of much greater importance than raw interception numbers.
Against a tremendous run defense in Tampa Bay, the Rams asked Goff to put it up 51 times (61 in Miami). His season-long rate is still well below last year's concerning 2.6 percent and in line with his 2018 Pro Bowl campaign.
How about the fact he was not sacked despite the pass-happy approach? Nice design by McVay and execution by the Rams, including new left tackle Joe Noteboom.
Run D.M.C.
Los Angeles gets another solid run defense this week – perhaps not as stout as the Bucs, who held the Rams to a grand total of 37 yards on the ground Monday night, but still top 10 in the league.
Nonetheless, the Rams managed a robust 5.95 yards per attempt in their first collisions with the Niners, and I'd envision a return to a more balanced offensive approach this Sunday.
Point Predictions
The Rams last 30-point game was October 11 at Washington.
My prediction of the week is that they'll go for 30-plus on Sunday and average 30-plus in their remaining six games. This group feels poised to break out, and despite missing from 44 yards in his L.A. debut, I'm bullish on Matt Gay as the long-term answer in the kicking game.
Defensive Deep Dive
Here's a bit of context for what the Rams defense has accomplished so far.
The 2020 NFL season in on track to set record levels for cumulative points (49.2), yards (718.3), and fewest giveaways (2.6) on a per game basis. It's an increasingly offensive league, littered with prolific offensive talent, especially at the quarterback position. And that only amplifies the accomplishment of Brandon Staley's unit.
At 17.1 offensive points per game allowed, they're the best in the league.
Their 3.9 offensive points allowed in second halves is the lowest since at least the 2000 Ravens (4.5), and by a wide margin. (We're actively working to extend that comparison even farther back in time and will update accordingly.)
And in the last two games, against future Hall of Famers Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, the Rams have vaulted up to a tie for seventh in the NFL in takeaways. They're now averaging 1.5 per outing.
Always Be Closing
Which leads us to the offenses they'll face in the closing stretch:
ARI - 11 (twice)
That's an average of 16th in offensive efficiency, with only one top 10 offense left on the schedule. And here's my weekly reminder that the Rams are long overdue to score a defensive touchdown.
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November 28, 2020 at 01:13AM
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